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Ratings

Our own race ratings, three a week. The live board is on the front page, and the full one is at Caucus+.

The Caucus · The Caucus · October 6, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 4

Kansas moves up, and Republicans pull $18 million out of North Carolina to pay for it

The Caucus · The Caucus · October 6, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of October 5th

We moved 3 formerly Safe Republican seats toward the Democrats

The Caucus · The Caucus · October 5, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 4

IA-01 was our biggest mover of the week after we changed its rating to D Advantage

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 30, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 3

Texas moves up, and we start tracking the seats Democrats are defending

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 29, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 28th

Six of our seven moves went toward Democrats

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 28, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 3

Five weeks out, the committees are starting to spend on offense

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 23, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 2

Alaska and Iowa move up

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 22, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 21st

We moved eight races this week

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 21, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 2

Six weeks out, MI-04 and NJ-07 make the biggest jumps

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 16, 2026

Ranking 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip

Five of the eight are pure toss-ups

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 15, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 14th

We moved seven races this week

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 14, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip

We'll update our rankings every week ahead of the November election

The Caucus · The Caucus · September 9, 2026

The Nine Closest Senate Races 50+ Days Out From the Election

There are two additional states we see as potentially competitive if the environment changes

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