Rating Changes: Week of September 21st
We moved eight races this week
Rating Changes: Week of September 21st
We moved eight races this week
The Caucus
September 22, 2026
Each week, The Caucus reviews every race on our board to make sure the rating still matches where we see the contest. We moved eight races this time, and all eight moved toward Democrats. Two of them are House seats Democrats are defending, and both now lean their way.
| CAUCUS+ RATING CHANGES · 8 RACES MOVED |
| HOUSE |
AK-AL Bill Hill (I) vs. Nick Begich Expected R▲R Advantage |
CO-05 Jessica Killin vs. Jeff Crank Expected R▲R Advantage |
FL-27 Eliott Rodriguez vs. María Elvira Salazar Expected R▲R Advantage |
MI-04 Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga R Advantage▲Toss up |
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez vs. Eric Flores Toss up▲D Advantage |
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs. John Braun Toss up▲D Advantage |
| SENATE |
FL Senate Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody Safe R▲Expected R |
| GOVERNOR |
AK Governor Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bronson, Taylor, Wilson R Advantage▲Toss up |
| All eight moves were toward Democrats. |
Here’s what changed:
Florida’s Senate special election moves from Safe R to Expected R. State Rep. Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman in the August primary, and a St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics taken Sept. 15-17 had her tied with Sen. Ashley Moody at 45%.
Alaska’s governor race moves from R Advantage to Toss up. Former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins took 40% in an AARP poll by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, with the three Republicans on the ballot splitting 41% among them. Bernadette Wilson has asked Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor to drop out and back her, and neither has.
Michigan’s 4th moves from R Advantage to Toss up. Trump carried Rep. Bill Huizenga’s West Michigan district by less than six points in 2024, and state Sen. Sean McCann led him 48-45 in a GBAO poll for Democrats this summer.
Texas’s 34th moves from Toss up to D Advantage. Republicans redrew the district to make it harder for Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, and Trump won the new lines by 10 points. Gonzalez has beaten Mayra Flores twice and has out-raised his new opponent, Eric Flores, $3.8 million to $2.9 million.
Washington’s 3rd moves from Toss up to D Advantage. Democratic candidates combined for about 55% of the August top-two primary vote in a district Trump carried by three points, and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced to face state Sen. John Braun.
Alaska’s at-large seat goes from Expected R to R Advantage. The DCCC added independent Bill Hill to its Red to Blue program last week after he took 32.5% in the August top-four primary to Rep. Nick Begich’s 44.6%.
Colorado’s 5th goes from Expected R to R Advantage. No Democrat has ever held the Colorado Springs seat, but Jessica Killin’s internal poll from Global Strategy Group had her one point behind Rep. Jeff Crank, 45-44.
Florida’s 27th goes from Expected R to R Advantage. Rep. María Elvira Salazar won by more than 20 points in 2024, and a Bendixen & Amandi poll for former CBS Miami anchor Eliott Rodriguez, a Democrat, has them tied at 45%.
