The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip
We'll update our rankings every week ahead of the November election
The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip
We'll update our rankings every week ahead of the November election
The Caucus
September 14, 2026
Each week until Election Day, The Caucus is ranking the top 25 House seats currently held by Republicans that Democrats are most likely to win. These rankings are meant to be a snapshot in time, not a prediction — until we reach our final edition of the year the Monday before the election.
Here’s The Caucus’s first Top 25:
| CAUCUS+ TOP 25 · WEEK 1 · 7 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | UT-01 Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen · open, redistricted | Safe D |
2 | CA-01 Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher · redistricted | Safe D |
3 | NE-02 Denise Powell vs. Brinker Harding · open | D Advantage |
4 | CA-48 Marni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond · open, redistricted | D Advantage |
5 | NY-17 Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler | Toss up |
6 | AZ-06 JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani | Toss up |
7 | AZ-01 Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely · open | Toss up |
8 | MI-07 William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett | Toss up |
9 | NJ-07 Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr. | Toss up |
10 | CA-22 Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao · redistricted | Toss up |
11 | CO-08 Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans | Toss up |
12 | PA-07 Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie | Toss up |
13 | VA-02 Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans | Toss up |
14 | IA-03 Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | Toss up |
15 | MI-10 Christina Hines vs. Michael Bouchard Jr. · open | Toss up |
16 | PA-10 Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry | Toss up |
17 | WI-03 Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | Toss up |
18 | IA-01 Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Toss up |
19 | PA-08 Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan | Toss up |
20 | OH-07 Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller | Toss up |
21 | VA-01 Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman | R Advantage |
22 | MI-04 Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga | R Advantage |
23 | IA-02 Lindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell · open | R Advantage |
24 | NC-11 Jamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom · open | R Advantage |
25 | TX-15 Bobby Pulido vs. Monica De La Cruz | R Advantage |
| The first edition of the Top 25, published Sept. 13, 2026. | ||
Democrats need to net three seats to take the chamber.
According to The Caucus ratings, there are 21 toss-ups, nine seats where Democrats have an advantage, 12 where we expect the Democratic candidate to win, and 185 safe seats. We rate seven seats as currently having a GOP advantage, 20 expected Republican districts and 181 safe ones.
(Photo: Cait Conley, via Cait Conley Campaign Facebook)
