At the beginning of the cycle, conventional wisdom was that Democrats would have little chance to flip the Senate. The environment has changed so much that the party now has a margin for error. The Caucus currently has nine Senate races as Toss Up, D Advantage, or R Advantage, our most competitive ratings. Of the nine, six are currently Republican held. Democrats need to net four seats in November to win the Senate.

Here are The Caucus’s top five races most likely to flip:

1. North Carolina (Roy Cooper): This race should have been competitive, but Cooper built a big lead and is holding steady

2. Alaska (Mary Peltola): With three of the four general election candidates now Republicans, Peltola now has a math advantage

3. Maine (Troy Jackson): It was an unprecedented primary, but Jackson is showing to be the best candidate to win over Maine voters tired of D.C. politics.

4. Ohio (Sherrod Brown): Brown lost in 2024 because of dissatisfaction of Washington and might win in 2026 for the same reason

5. Texas (James Talarico): Democrats have been fooled by Texas before, but Talarico has the resources, message and opponent to win

Along with those five, the four additional states in our most competitive categories are: Michigan (Open D), New Hampshire (Open D), Iowa (Open R), and Georgia (Ossoff).

(Photo: State Rep. James Talarico, via James Talarico Campaign Facebook)