Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the 25 Republican-held House seats Democrats are most likely to win. Each list reflects where the races stand that week rather than how we think they will end. The final edition will run the Monday before the election.

Third-quarter fundraising totals started landing two weeks before the Oct. 15 deadline, and at least 13 House Democrats have put out a number. Cait Conley leads everyone with $5 million in NY-17. Bobby Pulido took in $3.4 million in TX-15 and JoAnna Mendoza $3.3 million in AZ-06. The average first-time House candidate in 2022 raised about $2.9 million across an entire cycle.

IA-01 is the week’s big mover, up 13 spots to 7th after we moved the race to D Advantage. Christina Bohannan reported $2.7 million for the quarter. Outside groups filed just under $2 million in the district in the week ending Sept. 30, and the two sides finished within $170,000 of each other.

PA-07 takes 4th on the same upgrade. Bob Brooks raised $2.5 million and held a 45-40 advantage in the Franklin & Marshall poll that moved him up last week. The Congressional Leadership Fund put $1.1 million against him over those same seven days, while every Democratic group spending in the district combined for $388,000.

OH-07 dropped three spots to 22nd. Of the $829,000 in outside money filed there in the week ending Sept. 30, $817,000 came from a single Democratic group. Republicans filed $12,000, but it was a week after the Congressional Leadership Fund booked $4.9 million for Max Miller.

MI-07 slips two to 19th. Spending there ran close to even at about $2 million, but the money behind William Lawrence came from House Majority PAC, NRDC Action Votes and the LCV Victory Fund. His own campaign trailed Tom Barrett $6.3 million to $1.2 million at the last filing.

Shannon Taylor’s $2 million quarter in VA-01 keeps her at 24th, ahead of IA-02 and CO-05.

We’re four weeks out. Here is Week 4 of The Caucus Top 25, with how much each seat moved since last week:

Democrats hold 214 seats. Two are vacant, one from each party, so neither changes the math. Democrats need a net gain of three to reach 218.

According to The Caucus ratings, there are 19 toss-ups, 14 seats where Democrats have an advantage, 12 where we expect the Democratic candidate to win, and 185 safe Democratic seats. We rate 11 races as currently having a GOP advantage, 17 expected Republican districts and 177 safe ones.

(Photo: Christina Bohannan, via Christina Bohannan for Iowa Facebook)