The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 2
Six weeks out, MI-04 and NJ-07 make the biggest jumps
The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 2
Six weeks out, MI-04 and NJ-07 make the biggest jumps
The Caucus
September 21, 2026
Each week until Election Day, The Caucus is ranking the top 25 House seats currently held by Republicans that Democrats are most likely to win. These rankings are meant to be a snapshot in time, not a prediction, until we reach our final edition of the year the Monday before the election.
MI-04 made the biggest jump, up six spots to 16th after we moved it from R Advantage to Toss up. NJ-07 climbed four spots into the top five after we moved it from Toss up to D Advantage. KY-06 and CO-05 join the list after both moved from Expected R to R Advantage.
We’re six weeks out. Here is Week 2 of The Caucus Top 25, with how far each seat moved since last week:
| CAUCUS+ TOP 25 · WEEK 2 · 6 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | UT-01 Ben McAdams vs. Riley Owen · open, redistricted | Safe D |
2 | CA-01 Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher · redistricted | Safe D |
3 | NE-02 Denise Powell vs. Brinker Harding · open | D Advantage |
4 | CA-48 Marni von Wilpert vs. Jim Desmond · open, redistricted | D Advantage |
5 ▲4 | NJ-07 Rebecca Bennett vs. Tom Kean Jr. | D Advantage |
6 ▼1 | NY-17 Cait Conley vs. Mike Lawler | Toss up |
7 | AZ-01 Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely · open | Toss up |
8 ▲2 | CA-22 Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao · redistricted | Toss up |
9 ▼3 | AZ-06 JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani | Toss up |
10 ▲3 | VA-02 Elaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans | Toss up |
11 ▼3 | MI-07 William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett | Toss up |
12 | PA-07 Bob Brooks vs. Ryan Mackenzie | Toss up |
13 ▼2 | CO-08 Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans | Toss up |
14 | IA-03 Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | Toss up |
15 | MI-10 Christina Hines vs. Michael Bouchard Jr. · open | Toss up |
16 ▲6 | MI-04 Sean McCann vs. Bill Huizenga | Toss up |
17 | WI-03 Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | Toss up |
18 | IA-01 Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Toss up |
19 ▼3 | PA-10 Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry | Toss up |
20 ▼1 | PA-08 Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan | Toss up |
21 ▼1 | OH-07 Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller | Toss up |
22 ▲1 | IA-02 Lindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell · open | R Advantage |
23 ▼2 | VA-01 Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman | R Advantage |
24 NEW | KY-06 Zach Dembo vs. Ralph Alvarado · open | R Advantage |
25 NEW | CO-05 Jessica Killin vs. Jeff Crank | R Advantage |
| Dropped out: NC-11, TX-15. ▲ toward a Democratic flip, ▼ away. | ||
Democrats need to net three seats to take the chamber.
According to The Caucus ratings, there are 19 toss-ups, 12 seats where Democrats have an advantage, 12 where we expect the Democratic candidate to win, and 185 safe Democratic seats. We rate 11 races as currently having a GOP advantage, 16 expected Republican districts and 180 safe ones.
| HOUSE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 218 | |||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | |||
| Safe D | 185 | 185 | |||
| Expected D | 12 | 197 | |||
| D Advantage | 12 | 209 | |||
| Toss up | 19 | ||||
| R Advantage | 11 | ||||
| Expected R | 16 | ||||
| Safe R | 180 | ||||
HELD NOW  213 Democratic 222 Republican | |||||
| Democrats reach 209 without the toss ups and 228 with all of them. | |||||
