The Caucus
Tuesday, October 6, 202628 days to Election DayHouse: 218 to win, Democrats hold 213Senate: 51 to win, Democrats hold 47
The Newsletter · October 6, 2026

Three Safe Republican Seats Just Moved Toward Democrats

Plus: new stories on James Talarico in Texas, Paul LePage in Maine, and an ad from Mary Peltola.

Elias Isquith
Newsletter Writer

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Caucus+ Ratings
Top 5

The Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are most likely to flip.

1North CarolinaRoy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · openD Advantage
2AlaskaMary Peltola vs. Dan SullivanToss up
3MaineTroy Jackson vs. Susan CollinsToss up
4OhioSherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · specialToss up
5TexasJames Talarico vs. Ken PaxtonToss up
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Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 4

October 6, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of October 5th

October 6, 2026

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 4

October 5, 2026

Ranking the 8 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Week 3

September 29, 2026

Rating Changes: Week of September 28th

September 28, 2026
Caucus+506 races · 2,893 candidates
House218 to winDemocrats hold 21319 toss-ups
Senate51 to winDemocrats hold 477 toss-ups
Governor36 of 50 on the ballotDemocrats hold 234 toss-ups
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