Each week, The Caucus reviews every race on our board to make sure the rating still matches where we see the contest. We moved seven races this time, and six of them moved toward Democrats. The exception is New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, which we now call a toss up. Two of the seven sit on lines redrawn since 2024.

Here’s what changed:

• Georgia’s Senate race moves from D Advantage to Expected D. Republicans are starting to back away from this race. Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation pledged close to $60 million to beat Sen. Jon Ossoff, but SLF has booked just $2.1 million and canceled about $500,000 in reservations. When the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) announced $46.5 million in coordinated spending across eight states earlier this month, Georgia made the list without a dollar figure next to it, while Ohio got $11.2 million and Iowa $8.8 million. Ossoff had $42 million in the bank on June 30 to Mike Collins’s $2.2 million. Public polls have consistently given Ossoff a sizable lead for a red-leaning state.

• New Hampshire’s open Senate seat moves from D Advantage to Toss up. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) raised $14.6 million to former Sen. John E. Sununu’s $4.1 million, then spent 79% of it before the Sept. 8 primary. That left Pappas with $3.8 million on hand as of Aug. 19 against Sununu’s $3 million. Republicans have outspent Democrats on television in the state $27 million to $15.9 million, and the NRSC’s $5.3 million coordinated buy here is the largest it has made in any seat Republicans are trying to flip.

• Nevada’s governor race moves from R Advantage to Toss up. An Emerson College poll for KLAS taken early this month had Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford ahead of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo 44-42, the first public poll this cycle to show Ford in front. Lombardo’s approval sits at 40% approve and 39% disapprove. The Democratic Governors Association has now spent or reserved more than $12.8 million on Nevada television, including $1.4 million in Spanish-language ads, which is more than it has put into Arizona, Wisconsin or Iowa. Republicans still hold roughly a $24.5 million advantage in total advertising.

• Texas’s 15th moves from R Advantage to Toss up. Rep. Monica De La Cruz was out-raised by Bobby Pulido in the second quarter, $1.4 million to $1.2 million. Trump carried the redrawn district by about 18 points, but polling is trending toward Democrats in this part of the state. Pulido, a Tejano singer with two Latin Grammys, was already known to 73% of the district in May.

• Florida’s 22nd moves from R Advantage to Toss up. Redistricting opened the seat by moving Rep. Lois Frankel into the 23rd, and the new lines went for Trump 55-44. Casey Askar came out of a 10-candidate Republican primary with 30.9% after putting $3.1 million of his own money into the race. Pia Dandiya won the Democratic primary with nearly 69%, has raised $2.3 million with $1.3 million still on hand as of the last report, and joined the DCCC’s Red to Blue program in late July.

• Montana’s 1st moves from Expected R to R Advantage. Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement opened a seat he had been winning by growing margins, 7.7 points in 2024 after 3.2 points in 2022. Sam Forstag out-raised Aaron Flint $1.3 million to $1.2 million through June 30, which is not what usually happens to a Democrat in a district Trump carried by 11. A poll for Montana Free Press had Forstag’s favorability at 41-19, while Flint’s was 31-32.

• Vermont’s governor race moves from Safe R to Expected R. Republican Gov. Phil Scott won reelection in 2024 with 73% of the vote. A UNH poll taken Sept. 17-21 had him trailing Amanda Janoo 49-43, inside the 3.4-point margin of error. His net job approval is at zero, down from plus five in July, and the decline is almost entirely among Democrats, whose approval of him fell to 35%. Janoo beat establishment-backed Aly Richards by about two points in the Democratic primary and has out-raised Scott better than two to one this cycle, though he still has more cash on hand.

(Photo: Sam Forstag, via Sam Forstag Facebook)