1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Twenty-eight days out.

Every Democrat in today's issue is running somewhere Donald Trump won in 2024.

He carried Alaska by 13 points and Maine's 2nd District by nine, and no Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.

They also aren't running the same campaign, which in my opinion is the point.

A party with only one way to win doesn't win in places like these.

Below, you'll find three Republican House seats that stopped being safe this week, the student that James Talarico still talks about from his years as a teacher, why being a household name may be hurting Paul LePage in Maine, and Mary Peltola telling Alaskans to forget her party.

— Elias Isquith

2. NO LONGER SAFE

We moved six races on our board this week. All six are House seats, and all six moved toward Democrats.

You read about two of them, Iowa's 1st and Pennsylvania's 7th, here yesterday.

The three I'd look at first today were rated Safe R a week ago: Arkansas's 2nd, Missouri's 2nd, and Pennsylvania's 16th.

Republicans won every one of them by double digits two years ago. Rep. Mike Kelly, the Republican in Pennsylvania's 16th, won by more than 27 points.

Now they're all Expected R. 

Translation: Republicans are still the clear favorites, and it would take something big for any of them to flip.

So, no, we don't consider these competitive races at this point. But a week ago they were Safe, and that's a real change.

To find out why we moved a seat where the Democrat has raised $67,000 all cycle, read the full ratings changes at The Caucus.

3. THE TEACHER IN THE TEXAS SENATE RACE

Before Democrat James Talarico was running for Senate against Republican Ken Paxton, he taught at a middle school in one of San Antonio's poorest districts, where there were classes as big as 45 kids.

As our Kim Lyons reports, his education plan, from school meals to universal pre-K, grows out of those years.

Plenty of candidates promise to fund public schools. Talarico tells a story about a student named Justin, and about the therapist the district cut after the legislature slashed school budgets.

To find out what Talarico says the billionaires behind Texas's school voucher law are trying to do in Washington, read Kim's full story at The Caucus.

4. RACE SPOTLIGHT: EVERYBODY ALREADY KNOWS PAUL LEPAGE

5. AD WATCH: FORGET PARTY

Last Thursday, I wrote about the growing number of Democrats running against their own party. Former Rep. Mary Peltola's new ad in Alaska's Senate race might be the purest example yet.

"Forget party, forget politics," she tells viewers. "With me, Alaska comes first."

Everything after that is pitched to people who don't usually vote for Democrats. She cites her A rating from the NRA and says she "took on Joe Biden to secure the border and push through Alaska's largest oil project in decades."

She closes on corruption, saying she has no tolerance for any politician who uses their office to get rich.

It's a rational bet. Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, and the state has sent a Democrat to the Senate just once in the past 50 years. Peltola can't win on Democratic votes alone. She needs a lot of Trump voters to think of her as an Alaskan first.

Democrats in Washington don't seem to mind. Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has reserved more than $10 million in Alaska airtime to help her.

The math explains why. To control the Senate, Democrats have to hold their own seats and flip four Republican ones, and our rankings have only six Republican-held seats in the Competitive Tier.

A senator who campaigned against her party still counts toward a majority.

So far, Peltola's approach seems to be working. A September poll for AARP, run jointly by a Republican firm and a Democratic one, had her at 46 percent to Republican Senator Dan Sullivan's 41 percent among likely voters.

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so the poll also played out the final round, after the other candidates' votes were redistributed. Peltola won that round 53 to 47.

In our Senate rankings, Alaska is the second most likely Republican seat to flip, behind only North Carolina. We still rate it a Toss Up, because a five-point lead isn't enough evidence to say who's ahead with a month to go.

To find out what else is shaping the race, read our most recent Senate rankings at The Caucus.

6. IN THE NEWS

• Democratic Senate candidates in Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina have outraised their Republican opponents several times over, but outside money from Republican-aligned super PACs and party committees is closing the gap, and in Texas it has given Republicans the overall money advantage. (The Caucus)

• New York Times/Siena polls released over the weekend had Democrats up six points in Texas and three in Ohio, down one in Iowa and Kansas, all states Republicans currently hold in the Senate. (The Hill)

• Former President Barack Obama will rally in Detroit on October 24 with Michigan's top-of-the-ticket candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson, kicking off early in-person voting in the city where El-Sayed lost the surrounding county to Rep. Haley Stevens in the Senate primary. (Washington Sun)

Join The Caucus

We’re 100% independent and reader supported. The more members we have, the more coverage we can provide. Become a founding member of The Caucus today.

We’re your go-to source for what’s actually happening inside the Democratic Party. We don’t just write about the news of the day, we tell you what will matter tomorrow. We want to hire more reporters to cover campaigns, well-sourced journalists in Washington to write about what’s happening on the Hill, and analysts to break down all of the races you care about. But we need your help to do it.

Please consider becoming a member today. It’s just $10/month or $90 for a year.