1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Forty-two days out.

Tuesdays are when we publish the week’s ratings changes and explain what moved us.

Here’s a way to read everything below: Over the past two weeks, seven contests have entered our Competitive Tier, and Republicans are still favored in every one of them. Four moved in last week, three more this week.

That sounds like a strange place to look for Democratic progress. It isn’t. A map expands when seats the other party had been taking for granted start requiring money and attention. Republicans keeping the edge in all seven and having to defend all seven are not in tension. For Republicans, they’re two sides of the same coin.

Below, you’ll find the evidence behind this week’s eight moves, a candidate making his case from under a car, and a new political group that wants Democrats talking about artificial intelligence without telling them what to say about it.

— Elias Isquith

2. THREE MORE GOP HOUSE SEATS COME INTO PLAY

3. AD WATCH: A WORKING-CLASS PITCH WITHOUT THE PARTY LABEL

Democrat Randy Villegas’s ad is set in his family’s auto shop, and it addresses voters as people who work, pay bills, and sometimes come up short. It never asks them to identify as Democrats.

That connects it to an argument plenty of Democrats are making this year: that hard work has stopped delivering the security people expect from it. Villegas gives that argument a personal version in California’s 22nd District, then turns it on Republican Rep. David Valadao.

Note the order. The shop comes first, the accusation second. Villegas is asking voters who think Democrats are out of touch to judge him on a different credential — whether he has lived the squeeze he’s promising to fix.

4. A PAC ON AI THAT SKIPS THE LITMUS TEST

Tomorrow Together, a new Democratic group organized around artificial intelligence, wants candidates talking about AI without requiring them to agree on how to regulate it.

Its stated principles are broad: spread the benefits, protect children, give the public a say. That’s a deliberate choice. 

A litmus test would sort Democrats into camps on a subject most of them haven’t worked out a position on yet. Broad principles get more candidates talking sooner.

Whether that produces a durable alignment or just gives familiar arguments about economic power a new subject is the open question.

To see what the group has disclosed so far about who is paying for it, read Russell Payne’s full story at The Caucus.

5. READER Q&A

This week, Marvin N. writes: “What are the most interesting governor’s races right now?”

Start with Alaska, Marvin. We moved it to Toss Up this week. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative, faces three Republicans: Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor.

A crowded Republican field is not a three-against-one advantage for the Democrat. Alaska voters rank candidates, and if nobody clears a majority, ballots transfer as candidates are eliminated. The question is whether Republican voters who disagree about their first choice still end up behind the same person at the end.

Florida and Texas are interesting for a different reason: both only recently became competitive on our board. Democrat David Jolly faces Republican Rep. Byron Donalds in Florida. Democrat Gina Hinojosa is running against Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott, trying to end a drought that goes back to former Texas Governor Ann Richards’ win in 1990.

We still give Republicans the edge in both.

To get your own question into a future edition, write to us at hello@thecaucus.news.

6. CRYPTO VS. SHERROD BROWN, AGAIN

The cryptocurrency industry spent more than $40 million in 2024 to unseat former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who had used his chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee to press the industry on the risks it posed to consumers.

Brown no longer has that gavel. He is out of Washington, at least for now. As Russell Payne reports, that hasn’t stopped his critics in crypto from picking the fight back up.

For how the renewed effort against Brown follows the industry’s recent legislative setback, read Russell Payne’s full story at The Caucus.

6. IN THE NEWS

— Senate Republicans’ campaign committee ended August with $18.7 million on hand against Senate Democrats’ $37.6 million, after heavy pre-Labor Day spending, according to reports filed Sunday. (Punchbowl News)

— Democrat Beth Macy has raised nearly ten times as much in small donations as Republican Rep. Ben Cline in Virginia’s 6th District — roughly $445,000 to $47,000 through July 15 — while Cline holds a large edge in money from political committees. (WMRA)

— The NAACP and eight other civil rights and labor organizations sued in federal court in Washington on Friday, seeking to block the Trump administration from deploying federal agents in ways that would intimidate voters at polling places. (Democracy Docket)

Join The Caucus

We’re 100% independent and reader supported. The more members we have, the more coverage we can provide. Become a founding member of The Caucus today.

We’re your go-to source for what’s actually happening inside the Democratic Party. We don’t just write about the news of the day, we tell you what will matter tomorrow. We want to hire more reporters to cover campaigns, well-sourced journalists in Washington to write about what’s happening on the Hill, and analysts to break down all of the races you care about. But we need your help to do it.

Please consider becoming a founding member today. It’s just $10/month or $90 for a year.