1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Thirty-three days out.

A lot of what’s working for Democratic candidates this fall is anger: at President Trump, at Washington, and, increasingly, at data centers. A recent survey from the Pew Research Center shows how fast that last one has grown. In January, 38 percent of Americans told Pew that data centers were mostly bad for home energy costs. By August, that number was 50 percent.

But the picture gets more complicated once you start thinking about how the Democratic Party actually works. Even after the backlash, only 24 percent of Americans say data centers are mostly bad for local jobs, and about the same share say they’re mostly good for local jobs. Organized labor’s political power isn’t what it once was, but it’s still real. And one of the things unions love, of course, is jobs.

That’s the thread running through today’s issue. Anger can carry plenty of Democratic candidates a long way this fall. What it can’t do is tell them what to say when the thing voters are angry about is something part of their own coalition wants.

Below, you’ll find Jake Rakov reexamining JFK’s “New Frontier” speech, one of the most influential and famous addresses of the modern political era, and looking at how its themes fit with the vibes of 2026; a story about the union electricians who see data centers as a means to the middle class; a report on why Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s trip to Georgia didn’t change our rating there; and more on Democrats running against their own party.

— Elias Isquith

2. ECHOES OF KENNEDY

In his latest column, our co-founder, Jake Rakov, looks back at JFK’s famous “New Frontier” speech, which may have been delivered in 1960 but, Rakov argues, almost sounds as if it was about this year’s midterms.

To learn more about where Rakov hears echoes of today in Kennedy’s rhetoric, and why he calls himself a reluctant optimist about the Democratic Party, read Jake Rakov’s full column at The Caucus.

3. WHO BUILDS IT

If you want an easy applause line this campaign season, bash data centers. In Ohio, for example, former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown is hammering his opponent, the incumbent, Senator Jon Husted, over data centers. But as our Nathalie Baptiste reports, there’s an irony here: Some of the biggest cheerleaders for more data center construction are electricians’ and pipefitters’ unions, who understandably see a chance at a generational windfall.

To learn more about why the pipefitters aren’t happy with Ohio’s Democratic nominee for governor, Amy Acton, read Nathalie’s full story at The Caucus.

4. “A MARGIN-OF-ERROR RACE”

We moved Georgia’s Senate race from D Advantage to Expected D this week, which takes it out of our Competitive Tier. Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is the only Democratic senator running for reelection this year in a state President Trump carried in 2024.

Last Friday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune flew to Atlanta to say the race is still close. He called it a margin-of-error race and said he wouldn’t be there if he didn’t think Republicans could win. His super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, also put another $1.7 million into ads against Ossoff.

The rest of the evidence points the other way. Ossoff had $42.6 million in the bank at the end of June. Republican Rep. Mike Collins had $2.1 million. And when the National Republican Senatorial Committee asked donors for another $8.9 million last week, the money was for Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.

That has ramifications for the bigger picture. To reach the 51 seats they’ll need to actually control the Senate — since Vice President JD Vance, as president of the Senate, holds the tie-breaking vote — Democrats have to successfully defend their own seats while also flipping four currently held by Republicans. If Georgia, one of the main swing states in U.S. politics right now, gets safer, that should free up considerable resources for other races.

To find out which number was missing next to Georgia’s name when Senate Republicans announced their $46.5 million spending push, read the full Senate rankings at The Caucus.

5. UPS AND DOWNS

👍 ProPublica reported last week that the FBI had planned in 2024 to investigate Maine Senator Susan Collins’s dealings with Navatek, a Hawaii defense contractor and donor to her campaign, over an alleged pay-to-play scheme, but that the inquiry never got started after Trump took office. Navatek’s former CEO sent illegal donations to Collins and went to prison for it.

👎 Collins called the report outrageous and the former CEO a liar, and the FBI says the allegations were already investigated. With five weeks left, a story about an investigation that never happened may be easier for her to wave off.

👍 Democratic candidates are hearing how angry their voters are. An Axios analysis counted 47 ads from Democrats (and independents running as the de facto Democratic nominee) in the month before September 22 that went after their own party or both parties. In the same stretch of 2024, there were 19.

👎 Some of that anger is aimed at Democrats. Ads promising to work with both parties fell from 45 in 2024 to 18 this year. One Michigan House candidate, Christina Hines, told Axios that everyone she talks to hates both parties. A Democrat can win by running against the party, but once sworn in, they’re a member of it.

6. IN THE NEWS

— 314 Action, a group that backs Democratic candidates with science backgrounds, counts 118 doctors, nurses, and public health officials running as Democrats this year, many of them for state legislatures. (The Caucus)

— Democrat Justin Wagner, who is challenging Republican Rep. Mike Kelly in Pennsylvania’s 16th District, wants any new data center to disclose how much water and electricity it will use before it’s approved. He also wants a shipbuilding hub at the Port of Erie. (The Caucus)

— Senate Democrats on Wednesday blocked Ohio Senator Jon Husted’s bill on data centers and electricity costs, which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized for making its key requirement optional. (CNN)

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