1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Thirty-five days out.

As of mid-September, Republican candidates and groups had booked more than $557 million in ads across the nine most competitive Senate races, compared with $343 million for Democrats.

But here’s why that matters less than it sounds: Candidates pay a cheaper rate to run ads than super PACs do.

In New Hampshire, Texas, and Ohio, in particular — which are three of this year’s most competitive Senate races — the Democratic candidates have bigger war chests than their Republican opponents.

Below, you’ll find the one race we moved toward Republicans this week, despite the Democrat’s lopsided fundraising lead, a Democrat asking South Dakota Republicans to keep their legislature and hand him the governor’s office, and a congressional ad that opens with a love story about a sandwich.

— Elias Isquith

2. NEW HAMPSHIRE WENT THE OTHER WAY

We moved seven races on our board this week, and six moved toward Democrats. The seventh went the other way, and its the one I’d read first.

New Hampshire’s Senate seat, open because New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen isn’t running again, is now a Toss Up. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has out-raised Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu more than three to one, but the GOP still leads on TV spending by about 70 percent — $27 million vs. the Democrats’ $15.9 million.

Why? Largely because Sununu’s campaign is being supported by a ton of spending from outside groups. There’s only so much airtime to buy; a fundraising advantage can only do so much when the other side’s allies are grabbing so much of it.

To see why we moved a race where the Republican governor won by more than 50 points two years ago, read the full rankings at The Caucus.

3. WHY A DEMOCRAT IS TELLING VOTERS TO VOTE REPUBLICAN

4. HE TOOK THE INSULT AS A CHALLENGE

In March, Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, from Texas’s 15th District, tried to argue that the election “isn’t about who you want performing at your niece’s quinceañera,” the 15th-birthday celebration that’s a milestone in many Latino families. She meant it as a dig at her opponent, Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer with two Latin Grammys. Pulido started booking quinceañeras. By his count, he’s played at least 75.

This week we moved the race from R Advantage to Toss Up, which means we think either candidate could win, not necessarily that Pulido will.

The district hadn’t elected a Republican — ever — until De La Cruz won in 2022. But under the new gerrymandered lines, Trump carried it by nearly 18 points in the 2024 election. To win somewhere that red, Democratic candidates usually have to bring something special to the table, something being associated with the party cannot. For those who believe in Pulido’s chances, his name — which was widely known throughout South Texas before his campaign — may be that special something.

To see how Pulido’s fundraising stacked up against a sitting member of Congress last quarter, read why we moved the race at The Caucus.

5. AD WATCH: NO BALONEY

Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti’s new ad opens with a sandwich, not politics: one so good, she says, that she married the guy who made it. That part is true. She met her husband, Ryan, more than 20 years ago at his family’s store in Clarks Summit. The whole ad is set in the store, and Cognetti is dressed like she works the counter, not like she runs a city.

The joke gets her to the argument. Cognetti, a Democrat, is challenging first-term Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District.

Cognetti blames rising prices on corruption, saying chicken is up 30 percent while Congress continues to trade stocks. Cognetti never mentions her opponent by name, but she’s surely aware — and is doubtless hoping voters are aware — that Bresnahan’s own stock trades drew scrutiny just last year.

Although she’s mayor, Cognetti only spends a single line on her record. If you didn’t know any better and were only half-watching the ad, you’d think she was a young and scrappy outsider, the small-business owner from NEPA (Northeastern Pennsylvania), not an elected official. That’s by design.

6. IN THE NEWS

— Ad spending by Democrat James Talarico, Republican Ken Paxton and the super PACs backing each has already passed $153 million in the Texas Senate race, and the ad tracker AdImpact expects that to more than double by Election Day, which would set a state record. (KERA)

— Defend American Jobs, a super PAC tied to the crypto industry, reported $11.4 million in ads backing Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and opposing Democrat Sherrod Brown, part of a $30 million pledge to keep Brown out of the Senate. (Cointelegraph)

— House Speaker Mike Johnson is starting a six-week swing through more than 40 districts in 22 states, split evenly between Republican seats he’s defending and Democratic seats his party hopes to flip. (Axios)

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