Sen. Ashley Moody’s campaign has said the Republican is in dead heat with Angie Nixon, a Florida state representative who secured the Democratic nomination for Florida’s open Senate seat in an unexpected upset that has shaken politicians across the aisle.

Moody, who was appointed to a Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio after he assumed his position as Secretary of State, was expected to cruise to victory this election cycle as the Republican candidate in the Sunshine State, where registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats by over 1.5 million. 

Though Moody is still expected to win the Senate seat, two new voter surveys in a race where polling research has been largely absent have thrown her comfortable lead into question. 

A St. Pete Polls survey conducted in September for a Florida news site shows that Moody and Nixon both have around 45 percent of support from Florida voters. Another September survey conducted by Change Research found Moody and Nixon again tied for the vote, with 47 percent of support from Florida voters each. The surveys had margins of error of 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points, respectively. Moody’s campaign cited both these surveys in a Sept. 18 campaign alert, where she outlined the stakes of the election.

“Two polls. Two dead heats,” Moody’s campaign email read. “Trump-backed Ashley Moody is tied with Angie Nixon in the biggest Senate special election of 2026 – for the seat Marco Rubio held for fourteen years.”

Moody’s campaign against Nixon, the email stated, was “a special election, the biggest of 2026.”

“The polls show Democrats nearly 10 points more motivated, and if things don’t change fast, Florida flips along with the entire U.S. Senate,” the email read. 

Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate was once considered a longshot. But in the past few months, multiple Senate races have become battlegrounds, with Democratic candidates mounting tough challenges against incumbent Republicans. Republican leaders nationwide, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (SD) and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), have begun to worry that low Republican voter turnout could lose the party control of both chambers of Congress. 

Moody’s campaign email reflects this concern as her Democratic opponent, like many others nationwide, seems to have enjoyed a surge of voter support.

Nixon made headlines when she beat retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindeman for the Democratic nomination for Florida’s special election for Rubio’s former Senate seat in August. Her victory was a significant upset as Vindeman had largely outraised her campaign and secured endorsements from established Florida Democratic leaders. 

She is one of several members of the Democratic Socialists of America, which she joined this summer, who have seen strong support from voters across the country this election cycle. Nixon has said she is not a socialist despite being in the DSA, but Moody has frequently characterized her as such and labeled her as a Democratic radical. 

Though the two voter surveys show neither Moody nor Nixon with a clear advantage over one another, a different survey from New Quantus Insights shows Moody with a 7 point lead in the race for the Senate seat. The poll’s margin of error is 4.1 percentage points.

(Photo: State Rep. Angie Nixon, via Angie Nixon Facebook)