1. LEADING OFF

This week gives us a few striking examples.

Republicans say they’re feeling good about the midterms, but then they go and spend nearly $5 million on a race neither party had invested a dime in until now. In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, state lawmakers have talked about paid leave for years without passing it, so a county is moving ahead on its own with a vote today.

And on a longer time horizon, some liberal groups are spending on state supreme court races where control can’t change hands until 2028.

It bears repeating: A lot can change, and nothing the polls suggest today is guaranteed by the final tally on Election Day. Still, take all of the above together and — well, as someone once sang, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

For now, at least. Thirty-six days to go.

— Elias Isquith

2. THE WEEK AHEAD

The fundraising quarter closes Wednesday at midnight, so expect your inbox to get loud. Here’s what else is happening this week.

Monday: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley meet for their first debate in NY-17, a Toss Up, at 8 pm. The Senate also holds its final vote on the college sports bill tonight.

Tuesday: Democrat Ben McAdams and Republican Riley Owen debate in UT-01, number one on our Top 25, at 8pm Eastern.

Wednesday: Third-quarter books close at midnight. Reports are due October 15.

Thursday and Friday: President Trump holds rallies in Oklahoma and Alabama.

3. DEMS GO ON OFFENSE

4. TWELVE WEEKS, PAID

At noon today, Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, votes on making employers give new parents 12 weeks of paid leave. No local government has ever done it in a state without a paid leave law of its own. If this one does, a local health board will have beaten the state legislature to it.

To learn why County Executive Sara Innamorato says this vote is personal, read Kim Lyons’ full story at The Caucus.

5. THE LONG GAME ON THE BENCH

No state supreme court’s majority is up this November, and liberal groups are spending on those races anyway. In 2024, for the first time, they outspent the right. Surina Venkat explains why they’re playing for a bigger prize than November.

To learn how Republican legislatures have been rewriting the rules for electing judges, read Surina’s full story at The Caucus.

6. READER QUESTION: HOW A RACE MOVES

Jessica R. asks: “How do you decide your ratings? And what makes them move each week?”

Thanks, Jessica. Excellent question — and we’re always more than happy to let readers take a look under the hood.

Start with what a rating is: our read on where a race stands this week, not a prediction of how it ends. Toss Up means the evidence isn’t strong enough to say who’s ahead. D Advantage and R Advantage mean one side is ahead, but a bad couple of weeks could erase it. Expected D and Expected R mean something major has to change for the seat to flip. Safe D and Safe R are our least competitive races.

Every week we go back through every race on the board and ask whether its label still fits. New evidence moves it: independent polls, fundraising reports, endorsements, and especially where the parties and their allies spend. As this week’s Top 25 put it, where the committees put money is worth more than any single poll.

And a rating isn’t a wish. Republicans can lose ground and still be favored. We cover one party, but we aren’t a partisan outlet.

Have a question of your own? Send it to hello@thecaucus.news.

7. IN THE NEWS

— The Congressional Black Caucus, one of the most powerful entities within the Democratic Party, is pressing other Democrats to drop their support for the Protect College Sports Act, arguing it protects the NCAA at the expense of Black athletes. (The Caucus)

— A new super PAC with ties to Senate Majority PAC, the group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has registered for Texas, a sign party leaders may be preparing to help Democrat James Talarico against Republican Ken Paxton. (The Caucus)

— A New York Times/Siena poll released Thursday found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in Michigan’s open Senate race, the only Democratic-held seat up this year in a state Trump won in 2024. (Siena Research Institute)

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