1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Thirty-four days out.

In our Senate ratings right now, Democrats get to 46 seats before a single Toss Up comes into play. As a reminder, given the Vice President — and tiebreaking vote in the Senate — is JD Vance, if Democrats want to control the chamber they’ll need at least 51 votes (and that’s assuming Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman doesn’t get any ideas about switching parties). There are seven Toss Ups on our board, and five of them are currently held by the GOP.

This is why it’s worth noting how Senate Republicans are spending what is increasingly their most important resource: time. This week, for example, instead of hitting the trail, the Senate stayed in D.C. to support a bill from Ohio Senator Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent currently running behind his Democratic opponent, former Senator Sherrod Brown. That’s a real investment in Husted by the party, and it’s time they’re spending on defense rather than trying to flip a Democratic seat to the GOP.

Below, you’ll find an exclusive Q&A between The Caucus’s Jake Rakov and Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who argues that D.C. may need to slow down the most powerful AI until it’s proven safe. You’ll also find Surina Venkat’s latest on that Senate bill, Russell Payne’s story about Democrats and grassroots activists making major investments in election security, and the Democratic super PAC that just moved Texas up in our Senate rankings.

— Elias Isquith

2. Q&A: GOV. JOSH SHAPIRO’S CASE FOR SLOWING DOWN AI

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is running for a second term on speed. His administration even has an acronym for it, GSD, for getting stuff done, and his go-to proof is the collapsed stretch of I-95 in Philadelphia that reopened in 12 days.

I was surprised, then, to read this in his exclusive Q&A with The Caucus’s Jake Rakov: “That might mean placing limits on technology sharing and slowing down frontier AI development until we can be sure these systems are safe.”

It’s a great Q&A, and you can read it in full at The Caucus.

3. THE WORD IS “CONSIDER”

The Senate’s last week in D.C. before the election comes down to a handful of votes, our Surina Venkat reports, and the one Republicans want most is today’s procedural vote on Senator Jon Husted’s Ratepayer Protection Act.

The pitch is that data centers shouldn’t run up your electric bill. The bill itself tells state utility regulators to consider making data centers pay for the grid upgrades they need. But note that word: consider. Not require.

For this reason, and perhaps some unspoken others, a spokesperson for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told Politico the bill falls short of his party’s standards. Of course, there’s also the small matter of handing Husted a win as he battles former Senator Sherrod Brown, who has been hammering him over rising utility bills for weeks.

To learn more about how a ban on congressional stock trading ended up also being about voter ID, read Surina’s full story at The Caucus.

4. 500 PER WEEK

5. TEXAS PASSES IOWA

One move in this week’s Senate rankings: Texas climbs to fifth and Iowa slips to sixth. Both are still Toss Ups, and Iowa’s slip had nothing to do with anything happening in Iowa. Texas got a floor. 

On Sept. 24, a super PAC called Texas Forever, affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, the main outside group backing Senate Democrats, registered with the Federal Election Commission. It’s the first public sign that Senate Democratic leadership plans to spend for Democrat James Talarico against Republican Ken Paxton.

If the name rings a bell, it should. In 2018, a group called Texas Forever, funded almost entirely by Senate Majority PAC, ran a late ad blitz against Senator Ted Cruz.

To find out which Democratic-held seat has drawn more committed outside money than any other, read the full Senate rankings at The Caucus.

6. 2028 WATCH

— Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, at a Washington book event with Democratic Maryland Governor Wes Moore, said he once thought his 2023 reelection would be his last campaign, but that he won’t “leave a broken country to my kids.” His book tour stops in South Carolina in October. (FOX 56)

— Democratic Arizona Senator Mark Kelly starts a two-day South Carolina swing on Friday, campaigning for candidates including Democratic Senate nominee Dr. Annie Andrews. Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California gets there Thursday for several days of his own. (Associated Press)

— A week after Kelly, Democratic Illinois Governor JB Pritzker headlines a fundraising dinner for a local NAACP chapter in South Carolina. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has a packed schedule there too, including meetings with dozens of pastors and a conversation with parishioners affected by the 2015 shooting at Mother Emanuel AME in Charleston. (Associated Press)

7. IN THE NEWS

— Senate Majority PAC began running a digital ad attacking Republican Ken Paxton in Texas on Tuesday, on YouTube and streaming platforms. (Punchbowl News)

— The White House’s latest taxpayer-funded ad starring President Trump is nearly identical to a Trump campaign spot, and the administration insists it’s a public service announcement. (Deadline)

— Bexar County, home to San Antonio, still had nearly 50,000 voter registration applications waiting to be processed as of Friday, part of a statewide backlog caused by a Texas Department of Public Safety error that counties are racing to clear before early voting starts. (KSAT)

Join The Caucus

We’re 100% independent and reader supported. The more members we have, the more coverage we can provide. Become a founding member of The Caucus today.

We’re your go-to source for what’s actually happening inside the Democratic Party. We don’t just write about the news of the day, we tell you what will matter tomorrow. We want to hire more reporters to cover campaigns, well-sourced journalists in Washington to write about what’s happening on the Hill, and analysts to break down all of the races you care about. But we need your help to do it.

Please consider becoming a member today. It’s just $10/month or $90 for a year.